Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.883618 18.104204 20.483264 23.217014 26.266702 29.559264 33.378035
2025-08-24 12.478339 15.487658 18.951676 23.214851 28.299835 34.149230 41.364428
2025-08-31 10.597042 13.902056 17.886583 23.008678 29.379148 36.999266 46.757275
2025-09-07 9.293008 12.813271 17.236043 23.144147 30.765217 40.193896 52.660692
2025-09-14 8.503283 12.234696 17.090246 23.789899 32.699262 44.033668 59.419370
2025-09-21 7.535204 11.296625 16.358821 23.561969 33.419931 46.292793 64.198812
2025-09-28 6.467645 10.097776 15.147525 22.551664 32.969730 46.918812 66.778573
2025-10-05 6.073830 9.813869 15.163194 23.205317 34.784143 50.610080 73.575057
2025-10-12 5.674897 9.477069 15.062054 23.660777 36.312916 53.943941 79.987869
2025-10-19 5.162427 8.914680 14.576481 23.504022 36.927400 55.995387 84.660673
2025-10-26 4.693080 8.373440 14.073742 23.271553 37.391597 57.819766 89.046206
2025-11-02 4.340331 7.986340 13.773563 23.314508 38.246134 60.216315 94.318078
2025-11-09 4.043876 7.673816 13.577974 23.521126 39.380202 63.104402 100.483222
2025-11-16 3.723551 7.291278 13.239696 23.474598 40.112286 65.415408 105.878086
2025-11-23 3.410513 6.889903 12.834852 23.281852 40.582986 67.321157 110.698345
2025-11-30 3.185285 6.625253 12.638316 23.413272 41.565485 70.034891 116.831263
2025-12-07 3.065772 6.545124 12.751743 24.067581 43.420894 74.169038 125.295577
2025-12-14 2.818397 6.198173 12.367435 23.836625 43.787195 75.945491 130.105899
2025-12-21 2.481266 5.642676 11.564482 22.816172 42.760346 75.426475 131.224495
2025-12-28 2.403381 5.600147 11.701162 23.476469 44.631941 79.679238 140.148221
2026-01-04 2.304139 5.504279 11.729285 23.936632 46.169229 83.426530 148.360019
2026-01-11 2.136705 5.248998 11.433551 23.778259 46.603109 85.341171 153.609020
2026-01-18 1.974449 4.989087 11.109207 23.543409 46.881713 86.992304 158.458532